ONS labour market figures confirm CIPD view that fear of inflationary pay surge was exaggerated

August 2007

The latest quarterly labour market statistics, published earlier today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), confirm what the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) has been saying since the turn of the year - pay pressure did not strengthen during the busy winter and spring bargaining periods and by June was clearly starting to grow weaker. And, says the CIPD's Chief Economist John Philpott, there is little likelihood of renewed acceleration in pay rises despite today's good news on jobs and unemployment.

Dr Philpott commented on the latest ONS figures as follows:

"The latest labour market figures are full of good news for policy makers - more people in work, fewer jobless, and a pay scene that poses little threat to efforts to contain price inflation.

"It is now clear that labour market conditions at the start of the year were sufficiently slack to prevent a pay surge and what some had feared might be the emergence of an inflationary pay-price spiral. And although the latest ONS figures show that the demand for labour picked-up in the spring and early summer, conditions are set to soften again in the coming months as the impact of recent interest rate hikes starts to be felt.

"These official figures confirm the picture of the employment and pay scene for the first half of 2007 as painted by recent CIPD/KPMG quarterly labour market outlook surveys. Judging by our latest survey, published earlier this week, the second half of 2007 will see a slowdown in recruitment activity and still only modest pay rises."

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